Labor tension in photovoltaic industry under the h

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Photovoltaic industry under the epidemic: tight labor, rising costs, and lower installed capacity expectations

affected by the COVID-19, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association recently lowered its previous expectations for the new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic GW this year to GW

Wang Bohua, vice president and Secretary General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that for the photovoltaic manufacturing industry, the impact of the epidemic is mainly reflected in production capacity, cost and overseas markets

affected by the epidemic, at the manufacturing end, the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry will decline, the operating costs of the whole industrial chain will increase, and overseas factory operations and markets will be negatively affected; On the application side, there are also many adverse effects, such as the failure of photovoltaic power generation projects to merge and declare on schedule, the year-on-year increase in the proportion of light abandonment and power limitation, and more hidden dangers in the operation and maintenance of power stations. Wang Bohua said

tight labor, rising costs and other issues highlight

under the COVID-19, the photovoltaic industry as a whole presents problems such as delayed resumption of work, tight labor, low logistics efficiency, rising costs, tight supply of raw and auxiliary materials, and uncertain prospects for foreign trade

it is reported that the China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a survey notice to the industry on February 3, collected nearly 100 feedback on the impact of the epidemic on enterprises and policy recommendations, and reported to the relevant government departments on February 7

Wang Bo said that tensile strength or strength limit Hua said that many photovoltaic enterprises have resumed production since February 10, but due to traffic, the return trip is delayed. "Graphene also helps to reduce the weight and size of the battery, and there is still a 14 day isolation period after the return trip. Many photovoltaic enterprises are in a tight labor situation. Although local employees can be recruited nearby, there are still problems such as training and induction

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in logistics transportation, because trucks need to queue up repeatedly to measure temperature during transportation, the logistics time is times longer than usual, or even more. In some areas, roads are closed or even inaccessible. Various factors are affecting the raw material procurement and finished product delivery of photovoltaic enterprises

the impact of the epidemic on all links of the photovoltaic industry chain is quite different, so we should be alert to the barrel effect caused by raw and auxiliary materials. According to Wang Bohua, as of February 6, the capacity utilization rate of polysilicon and silicon wafer was 70%-100%, that of battery chips, components and inverters was 40%-80%, and that of raw and auxiliary materials was about 30%-100%. The inventory of ingredients before the festival of photovoltaic enterprises is gradually exhausted, such as packaging cartons, crucibles, junction boxes, welding strips and other auxiliary materials have been in a tight supply situation. If the supply shortage continues, it may cause the barrel effect, and the production of some enterprises will face stagnation

after novel coronavirus is listed in the international public health emergency (pheic), the sail away plan of the photovoltaic industry will also be affected. Many countries have taken measures to control the entry of Chinese citizens, which has caused difficulties for the export and visit of photovoltaic enterprises, as well as a series of activities such as the management of overseas factories, market research and exhibition

many enterprises have overseas factories, but the raw and auxiliary materials of these factories are purchased from China through import. Therefore, the shortage of domestic raw materials and tight logistics will also lead to great difficulties in overseas supply, and the potential risks will increase. Wang Bohua said

in its view, overseas factory operations and markets will be negatively affected by the epidemic. The failure of enterprise production to meet expectations, the lengthening and increasingly stringent container quarantine cycle, and the serious delay in the delivery of overseas orders will lead to the risk of losing orders and even litigation; For enterprises with overseas factories, as the main raw and auxiliary materials are purchased from China in the form of import, the supply of raw and auxiliary materials in China is tightening, and the logistics is not smooth, resulting in difficulties in the supply of raw materials for overseas factories and great potential operational risks; Many countries have canceled flights to and from China in succession, and Chinese personnel are restricted from entering the country and are unable to meet with customers and partners in time, which will be a heavy blow to the operation and management of overseas factories and the development of overseas markets

the overall capacity rate of the industry will decline

the above problems are affecting the manufacturing and application ends of the photovoltaic industry

the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry will decline. If the epidemic cannot be controlled soon, the construction of downstream power stations will be less than expected, and the pressure will continue to transmit upward, affecting the production and operation of upstream silicon materials and other links. We expect that the production and operation of the industry will be greatly affected in the first half of the year. Wang Bohua predicted

according to its analysis, for the photovoltaic manufacturing industry, the epidemic will also lead to an increase in the operating costs of the whole industry chain. With the sharp rise of enterprise labor, raw and auxiliary materials, logistics, sales, depreciation, operation and other costs, if the price of photovoltaic modules rises, the investment cost of downstream power stations will also rise, the pace of parity in China will slow down, and the competitiveness of photovoltaic power generation will also decline

for the photovoltaic market, the epidemic will also lead to problems such as the failure of photovoltaic power generation projects to merge and declare on schedule, the year-on-year increase in the proportion of light abandonment and power limitation, and the increase in hidden dangers of power station operation and maintenance

if the work is resumed in March, the consolidation volume of some photovoltaic enterprises will be 10% of the original plan before March 31, and the enterprises with rapid project progress can only reach 50%. As a result, photovoltaic power generation projects will not be able to be declared on schedule. Wang Bohua said that for the power station, if the on-the-job operation and maintenance personnel do not change their posts, there is room for shift adjustment and continuous high-load work, there is a potential safety hazard with a large elongation of 2 significant digits. The operation and maintenance personnel are insufficient, and small faults cannot be repaired in time, and the owner will also lose power generation

considering the impact of the epidemic on the manufacturing side and the application side, Wang Bohua said that the China photovoltaic industry association is putting forward suggestions to relevant departments, mainly including appropriately extending the time limit for the consolidation and declaration of power stations, such as the 2019 bidding project, the consolidation node of the leading base, the 2020 bidding and the declaration node of the flat price project, and how to ensure smooth logistics, strengthen fiscal and tax support, strengthen the support of financing institutions, and ensure international operations

the economy cannot escape the impact of the epidemic in the first quarter. For the photovoltaic industry, the impact is mainly reflected in the supply side impact. Due to the reduction of working days in February caused by the epidemic, the rush installation project schedule of photovoltaic enterprises originally scheduled for the end of the first quarter (i.e. March 31) will be very tight

if the rush installation of 331 cannot be completed, the projects that did not merge as planned last year will be merged before June 30. At that time, the subsidy will be reduced by 0.02 yuan/kWh compared with the original subsidy, causing the growth rate of photovoltaic enterprises' performance in the first quarter or pressure. Dongguan securities forecast

another analysis pointed out that with the gradual clarification of the wind power photovoltaic policy, the epidemic has a certain impact on the short-term start-up of the industry. However, due to the documents issued by the national energy administration before the Spring Festival, the policies were introduced earlier than last year, and the photovoltaic bidding preparation and construction time are sufficient this year, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic throughout the year is expected to offset the negative impact of the epidemic and achieve sustained growth

the short-term disturbance will not change the long-term trend, and the photovoltaic installed capacity in 2020 is still expected. In the short term, the epidemic occurred around the Spring Festival and mainly affected the situation in the first quarter. From the historical data, the first quarter is the traditional off-season of photovoltaic installation. In the past four years, the average annual proportion of installed capacity in the first quarter is 18.3%, far less than 1/4. New energy prediction of open source securities

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