The hottest new energy bus meets a new round of ch

New energy buses meet a new round of challenges

after more than ten years of development, China's new energy vehicles have made remarkable achievements, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have ranked first in the world for two consecutive years. Since 2011, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in China have exceeded 10 million units, and the relationship between fastener assembly and total friction coefficient is 0 million. At the same time, a number of excellent independent new energy vehicle enterprises have grown up. Last year, 17 new energy vehicle enterprises sold more than 10000 vehicles worldwide, including 9 in China

passenger cars are the breakthrough pioneers in the new energy vehicle industry

in 2016, China sold 129000 new energy passenger cars, accounting for 1/4 (25.3%) of the sales of new energy vehicles. In China's passenger car market, the share of new energy passenger cars is also close to 1/4 (23.8%). It can be said that passenger cars have played a pioneering role in the development of China's new energy vehicle industry. Especially in the early stage of promotion, there are many difficulties from industrial preparation to consumer acceptance. The first breakthrough and coming out is the new energy bus. Today, the number of new energy passenger cars promoted in China ranks first in the world

China has the world's largest passenger car market and passenger car industry. The bus industry has long adhered to the development path of independent innovation, especially in the field of clean energy buses. The overall technical level is in a leading position in the world. In the technological innovation of China's automobile industry, where the manual fixture is different, passenger cars have taken a good lead, and natural gas passenger cars, liquefied natural gas passenger cars, pure electric passenger cars, hybrid electric passenger cars and plug-in hybrid passenger cars go hand in hand. Today, the fuel economy of 12 meter hybrid electric buses in China has reached 20l/100 kilometers, leading the world

the development of new energy passenger cars has also driven the development of vehicle batteries, motors, electronic control and other key components, laying the foundation for the overall development of the industry. Taking the data of the first half of 2016 as an example, the batteries used by passenger cars account for about 50% of the total shipments of automotive power batteries, that is, passenger cars, which account for about 1/4 of the sales of new energy vehicles, consume half of the total batteries. It can be said that the rapid development of power batteries in China in recent years has largely benefited from new energy buses

car companies need to cure the subsidy policy "over dependence"

in the first half of this year, although China's new energy vehicles have a good overall trend, new energy buses have entered a trough, with a negative year-on-year growth. The most direct reason for this is the adjustment of the new energy bus subsidy policy, including the adjustment of the subsidy amount and the requirement of 30000 kilometers, which also shows that China's new energy bus enterprises rely too much on the subsidy policy. The author still remembers that in 2012, the development momentum of hybrid electric buses in China was very good, but the decline was serious after the abolition of subsidies, which shows that new energy buses are highly dependent on policies

at present, China's new energy bus industry is facing new challenges, such as the high cost of complete vehicles and parts, many technical solutions "catching up" with the subsidy policy, attention to technical solutions with more reasonable cost performance, insufficient development, etc. In addition, there are still problems in the quality and safety of some products. Among them, the top priority is to overcome the inadaptability of subsidy policy adjustment. Automobile products (except those for special purposes of the state) must rely on reasonable cost performance to participate in market competition. The state's subsidies for new energy vehicles can only be short-term subsidies for the initial R & D costs and the higher production costs before they are added to the volume at the initial stage

the first is environmental protection. Severe haze pressure has strengthened China's determination to develop new energy vehicles. Relevant ministries and commissions have proposed the goal of bus cleaning; The "13th five year plan for the development of modern integrated transportation system" issued by the State Council requires that the construction of transit metropolis be comprehensively promoted in cities at and above the prefecture level, and the proportion of new energy buses shall not be less than 35%. It is predicted that the total number of urban buses in China will reach 700000 in 2020, with new energy buses accounting for more than 50%

the second is energy security. With the growth of China's car ownership, the demand for oil has also increased year by year. At present, China's dependence on foreign oil has reached 65%, which is expected to increase to 68% by 2020 and 74% by 2030. Among them, there are serious energy security problems

the third is industrial upgrading. China is a big automobile country, but not a strong automobile country. Its R & D strength is weak. Its own brand passenger cars account for less than 50% of the domestic automobile market, and most of them are low-end products. The lack of core technology of key components of traditional cars is a serious problem. At present, China's own brand cars do not have the ability to participate in international market competition. In 2016, the export of finished vehicles was only 810000. China's automobile industry must change the state of being only big but not strong

in the development of new energy vehicles, the bus industry is significant, and its impact on the urban atmospheric environment is more prominent. Therefore, the development of new energy buses is not a short-term behavior, and we must be determined

how to deal with the post subsidy era for new energy vehicles

from now to 2020, the subsidy for new energy vehicles is gradually declining, which is crucial to the development of enterprises. For the survival of the fittest, car enterprises should seize the time to adjust and evaluate the technical scheme and industrial chain according to the existing problems, so as to adapt to the changes of policies and meet the post subsidy era

the rise of new energy passenger cars has ushered in the first adjustment of China's passenger car industry. Yutong, Zhongtong, BYD, Yinlong and other enterprises have become the pacesetters, breaking the original industrial pattern. Now the adjustment and decline of subsidies will bring new changes to the pattern of the bus industry. Enterprises that make ideological and technological preparations in advance will usher in new development opportunities, and enterprises that lack enterprising spirit, complain about others, and lack ability may be eliminated

how to formulate a reasonable technical route for bus electrification after the subsidy goes down? The author would like to make five suggestions

safety first. At present, the fire frequency of new energy passenger cars ranks high among all kinds of models, which must be paid enough attention. In the future, the state will formulate relevant management measures, and the enterprises producing unsafe passenger cars will be the first out

secondly, we should carefully study the effect of energy conservation and emission reduction throughout the product life cycle. In the past, some technical schemes used to have high energy consumption, which means high product emissions. The next important work is to evaluate whether the technical schemes can truly achieve energy conservation and emission reduction. We should reduce vehicle weight and energy consumption per kilometer, especially the energy-saving problem of air conditioning, which is often marginalized by performance assessment

the third is to reduce costs. After the subsidy is cancelled, the product cost must be significantly reduced, which requires the joint efforts of vehicle enterprises and parts enterprises. Buses serve the public, and the market will not favor high-priced products

fourth, it should be conducive to improving vehicle operation efficiency. At present, it may not matter if the product operates less efficiently relying on the support of national financial subsidies. This situation must be changed in the future, and the charging (changing) mode and use mode of the product should be seriously considered

fifth, the vehicle design should be more refined and humanized. Make passengers more comfortable and convenient, and make the city more beautiful

there are often doubts about new energy vehicles inside and outside the industry that they are not low-carbon products. Using the carbon emission factor value of Singapore, the author makes a rough estimate of the full life cycle carbon emissions of electric buses and fuel buses. Taking the 12 meter bus as an example, the power consumption of electric buses is 80 ~ 150 degrees per 100 kilometers, and the carbon emission in the whole life cycle is 400 ~ 750 grams/km. At present, the fuel consumption of the most fuel-efficient hybrid 12m bus produced in China can be as low as 20l/100km, and the fuel consumption of the most fuel-efficient bus is 40 ~ 50L/100km, with its full life cycle carbon emissions of 600 ~ 1500 g/km. It can be seen from the above data that the overall carbon emission of pure electric buses is better than that of fuel vehicles. However, this conclusion is conditional. The carbon emission of electric buses that consume electricity may not be as good as that of fuel-efficient buses. At this stage, we can't say with complete confidence that as long as electric buses are low-carbon emissions, we must strive to reduce product energy consumption

the technical route of new energy passenger cars needs to be innovated

new energy passenger cars are the most active areas of self innovation in China's automotive industry, and the types of technologies are diversified. This year's government work report proposed to encourage the use of clean energy vehicles, so we should promote the diversification of clean energy vehicle technology. As for which technical scheme is more suitable for future development, it needs to be re evaluated and re innovated

1. Fast charging and recharging are more suitable for pure electric bus

the author has counted the length of bus lines in some cities and found that most of the bus runs within 20 kilometers, even in mega cities such as Beijing, most of which are within 40 kilometers, so there is no need for vehicles to be loaded with batteries that can be used for 300 kilometers all the time. Fast charging and recharging are more suitable for pure electric buses

2. Fuel cell passenger cars are suitable for long-distance transportation

the fuel cell vehicle technology has become mature internationally, and there is still a big gap between China and the international advanced level in technology research and development and industrialization. The author believes that the relationship between pure electric vehicles and fuel cells is complementary, with each other's strengths and weaknesses. Based on the current battery technology, pure electric vehicles are more suitable for medium and short distance use in cities. It is technically possible for an electric vehicle to run fourorfive kilometers with a large number of batteries, but the price is expensive, the energy consumption is high, and the carbon emission is not low. Even if China can achieve the goal of 300wh/kg energy density of single battery by 2020, it will be difficult to achieve the driving range of fuel vehicles. It is unclear to what extent the battery will develop in the future. At least at this stage, pure electric vehicles are more suitable for medium and short distance use, and fuel cell vehicles are more suitable for long-distance use. There may be overlap in some application fields, but there will be division of labor on the whole

China should actively promote the technological innovation, promotion and application of fuel cells. It is suggested to start with long-distance trucks or buses with relatively fixed routes. After all, the infrastructure construction of hydrogen refueling stations is difficult at present. Relatively speaking, it is less difficult for fuel cells to get started from commercial vehicles than passenger cars. Therefore, the author believes that promoting the development of fuel cell vehicles in the field of passenger cars may be more suitable for China's national conditions

to develop fuel cell passenger cars, we must speed up action. We can learn from the experience of developing natural gas vehicles and electric vehicles in China, and import the industrialization stage from the technology research and development stage as soon as possible through large-scale demonstration. For example, we can reduce the transaction cost and choose regions rich in hydrogen resources to carry out a demonstration of 100 vehicles (or 500 vehicles) in 10 districts to form a certain scale to stimulate industrial development. In the next step, the country may make corresponding arrangements. It is believed that fuel cell passenger cars will soon usher in opportunities. It is suggested that qualified passenger car enterprises layout in advance

3. Don't relax the development of natural gas passenger cars

natural gas vehicles have the advantages of low emissions in the whole life cycle, and are typical clean energy vehicles. After more than 20 years of promotion, the number of natural gas vehicles in China has reached 5million, which is the largest in the world. As of 20, some customers have not been trained for 14 years, and the number of natural gas buses in China is 180000